No War With Iran

The following message came from the Peace Corps Iran Association, an organization of former Peace Corps Volunteers who served in Iran. The committee responsible for these alerts has been staying abreast of the situation, and sent this alert yesterday:

ACTION ALERT      January 8, 2020

NO WAR WITH IRAN:  Let cooler heads prevail

The Trump administration got more than it was bargaining for with the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. This precipitous and ill-considered strike has focused attention on legislation to re-assert Congress’ war authority, called into question the role of the US military presence in the Middle East, and prompted appeals for diplomacy from leaders across the globe. The trajectory of the US-Iran conflict is in the balance. There are opportunities to turn that trajectory away from warfare and toward diplomacy.  WE ASK YOUR HELP — IMMEDIATELY:

Tell your Congressional representatives to vote for legislation that will avert war:

• War Powers Resolution: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is working with various congressional leaders on a War Powers Resolution. Please support language that will immediately and unequivocally curtail the President’s military actions and reassert Congress’ Constitutional authority.
• No funds for war with Iran: Congressman Ro Khanna is introducing legislation to prohibit any funding for offensive military action in or against Iran without prior congressional authorization.
• Repeal the Authorization for Use of Military Force: Congresswoman Barbara Lee is sponsoring a bill to repeal the AUMF of 2002, which the administration might use (without legal basis) to justify attacking Iran.

Quick facts and takes:

There are several versions of a War Powers Resolution. We recommend supporting the version sponsored by Representative Barbara Lee, which would curtail military hostilities immediately.  Another, introduced by Senator Tim Kaine in the Senate, provides that that if no further Congressional action is taken, the Administration’s military hostilities with regard to Iran cease within 30 days. The House counterpart is being led by Representative Elissa Slotkin. 

As amendments to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), bills to repeal the AUMF passed Congress last year with bipartisan votes. However, they were dropped from the final NDAA.

Iran remains ‘in’ the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) but is ratcheting up incremental violations. As planned, Iran announced its fifth (and apparently final) cut to its implementation of the JCPOA this past weekend: it will no longer restrict its quantity of centrifuges.  Inspections by IAEA will continue. In short: Not all bridges are burned: There is room to recommit to and strengthen the JCPOA.

Trump’s wrong approach to Iran

What’s wrong with Trump’s approach to Iran? Let me count the ways.

First, Trump’s claims about stopping Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani’s plans make little sense. What had been planned can take place with or without him. Iranian strikes are more, not less, likely now.  This is too similar to the prelude to the war in Iraq except that Trump isn’t taking the time to try to convince anyone. We just have unsubstantiable and probably false claims as a basis for very costly decisions.

Second, the timing is suspicious. War threats blew impeachment out of the news. In other words, everything is PR.

Third, Trump’s stated policy is tit for tat. But where does it end? If we need to have the last strike, why don’t they? Most important he has crushed any diplomatic path to peace as a way out.

Fourth, this was totally unnecessary. President Obama created a path to peace in the Middle East. Only Trump thought the Iranians weren’t obeying the nuclear agreement – those who actually went and looked agreed the deal was working.  But Trump shredded the existing path to peace, revived animosities that made it useless to stay in Iraq, provoked Iran by increasing sanctions after destroying the legal basis for sanctions and is now delivering the Middle East to other foreign powers like Russia and China. Iran has been measured and restrained by comparison.

Fifth, the military is not united on this. Trump has found people in the military who will work with him while other high-ranking and responsible brass react that his missions are not properly vetted and do more harm than good. Disagreement is fine but the possibility that Trump is reshaping the Army so that it can’t threaten a Trump takeover scares me most. Then we are all in the sewers, concentration camps or gas chambers. If you think that’s not possible, that’s exactly what does make it possible. We have to stop him, not ignore him.

Sixth, it is now much more likely that we are headed for war. Trump has managed to move the Iranian people from blaming their own government for their troubles to blaming the U.S. So the political pressures in Iran are now all on the side of action again the U.S.

Seventh, Iran does have the capability to react. They are well-organized for asymmetrical or unconventional warfare. American power is based on throw weight and mass destruction; Iranian power is based on secrecy and guerilla tactics. Military conflict with Iran will be very costly, a view strongly held within the military. Taking them on militarily makes little sense when there are better ways of managing conflict.

The real problem is to find someone who behaves like an adult in the White House. That makes the impeachment process more urgent and important. And by the way, the Constitution demands a trial. Trials in America are based on testimony under oath. Trial without witnesses is an oxymoron, another way Senate leaders insist on ignoring the Constitution – because they know testimony would be very damning to Trump.

For those interested, here is a link to expert commentators and the views of the organization of former Peace Corps Volunteers who served in Iran.